PARIS, June 3: Global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.8 percent in 2026, before recovering to 3.1 percent in 2027, according to the latest Economic Outlook released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Wednesday.
Even though the world economy entered 2026 stronger than many had anticipated, the conflict in the Middle East has become the dominant force shaping the global economic outlook, the OECD said.
Global trade growth to slow in 2026 with further pressure from...
According to the OECD, the evolution of the conflict remains uncertain, while its economic consequences are likely to be felt for some time even after its resolution.
Recognizing this uncertainty, the organization based its analysis on two possible trajectories: a time-limited disruption scenario, in which disruptions remain relatively short-lived, and a prolonged disruption scenario with broader and much more lasting negative consequences.
Under a baseline scenario in which prospects for a peace deal between the United States and Iran gain momentum and energy prices gradually ease from mid-2026 onward, the OECD projects global economic growth to slow from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.8 percent in 2026 before recovering to 3.1 percent in 2027.
