KATHMANDU, Jan 22: During his tenure as mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Balendra Shah (Balen) was locked in his fiercest confrontation with the CPN-UML. The clashes frequently spilled onto social media, where Balen launched sharp, often biting satire against UML Chair KP Sharma Oli. Oli, for his part, responded with open anger from public platforms.
That long-running war of words has now shifted from rhetoric to the electoral arena. By joining the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Balen has entered Oli’s traditional stronghold—Jhapa Constituency-5. Rallying forces described as “alternative,” the RSP has projected Balen as a potential future prime minister. The contest has thus taken on larger symbolism: a face-off between Oli, the standard-bearer of the old political order, and Balen, the most prominent figure among the new forces—making it the most closely watched battle of the March 5 House of Representatives (HoR) election.
On Tuesday, as he filed his candidacy, Balen appeared to transport nationwide political energy to Damak, Jhapa. Accompanied by tens of thousands of supporters, he reached the election officer’s office in Jhapa-5 and formally challenged Oli. The sheer scale of the crowd has fueled speculation, both at home and abroad, that Balen could deal a serious blow to Oli on his own turf.
Yet Jhapa-5—shaped by the legacy of the “Jhapa Movement,” known as a bastion of communist voters, and long regarded as Oli’s political fortress—is far from an easy battlefield. Oli’s record of commanding, often one-sided victories in recent elections presents a formidable hurdle for Balen.
Even a glance at recent electoral arithmetic suggests that Balen faces an uphill task. Still, elections have a way of defying early verdicts.
Oli’s electoral past and the numbers
This marks Oli’s eighth electoral contest in Jhapa. He was first elected to the HoR from Jhapa-6 in 2048 BS.
In the 2051 BS mid-term election, Oli again won from Jhapa-6, securing 18,861 votes, while Nepali Congress (NC) candidate Keshab Bahadur Budhathoki received 14,202 votes.
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In the 2056 BS HoR election, Oli contested from both Jhapa-2 and Jhapa-6 and won in both constituencies. In Jhapa-2, he edged past NC candidate Giriraj Kumari Prasai by a narrow margin—18,909 votes to 18,892. In Jhapa-6, Oli polled 23,749 votes, defeating NC candidate Kasilala Tajpuriya, who secured 19,713 votes.
The 2064 BS Constituent Assembly election remains the lone blot on Oli’s Jhapa record. Contesting from then-Jhapa-7, he was defeated by CPN (Maoist Centre) candidate Bishwadeep Lingden, who received 16,099 votes, while Oli managed 14,959. This is the only election Oli has lost in Jhapa.
Oli rebounded in the 2070 BS Constituent Assembly election, winning from Jhapa-7 with 19,287 votes, against NC candidate Suresh Kumar Yongya’s 11,041 votes.
By the 2074 BS HoR election, Oli had firmly established himself as a powerful national leader. Having become UML chair in 2071 BS and prime minister after the promulgation of the constitution in 2072 BS, Oli’s “nationalist leader” image—sharpened during India’s undeclared blockade—further consolidated his influence in Jhapa.
Backed by an electoral alliance with the Maoist Centre and a strategic understanding with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Oli cruised to victory in Jhapa-5 in 2074 BS, securing a massive 57,139 votes. His nearest rival, NC candidate Khagendra Adhikari, managed only 28,297 votes.
Oli’s dominance continued in the 2079 BS HoR election. Despite the UML split and despite the Maoist Centre backing the rival NC, Oli won again with 52,319 votes, aided by RPP support.
NC candidate Khagendra Adhikari was limited to 23,743 votes, while RSP’s Suresh Kumar Pokhrel secured 11,759 votes.
Balen’s hope: The 2079 BS ‘swing vote’
Balen’s opening in Oli’s fortress appears to lie in the “swing vote” visible in the 2079 BS election. Contesting a first-past-the-post election for the first time, RSP candidate Suresh Kumar Pokhrel’s 11,759 votes offered a glimpse of a shifting voter base—one Balen hopes to expand.
The swing becomes even clearer in proportional representation results. In 2079 BS, RSP secured 18,205 proportional votes in Jhapa-5—second only to the UML.
While UML received 35,872 votes in the HoR proportional ballot, it garnered 39,747 votes in the provincial assembly—indicating that 3,875 voters who backed UML provincially did not do so federally.
A similar pattern appears for the NC, which received 16,859 HoR votes but 17,673 provincial votes, suggesting 814 votes shifted elsewhere.
The most dramatic swing occurred in the RPP vote, which dropped from 14,750 votes in the provincial assembly to just 7,370 votes in the HoR.
The Maoist Centre stands out as the only party whose proportional votes remained largely stable. RSP did not contest the provincial assembly election, suggesting that much of the swing vote from various parties gravitated toward it. It is this pool of disenchanted voters that seems to have emboldened Balen to take the Jhapa-5 plunge.
UML dominance at the ward level
The 2079 BS local elections further underline UML’s strength in Jhapa-5, which covers Damak Municipality, Gaurigunj Rural Municipality, Gauradaha Municipality, and Kamal Rural Municipality.
Out of 29 wards, UML won 18 ward chair positions. The NC won six, Maoist Centre two, RPP one, CPN (Unified Socialist) one, and an independent candidate one.
UML contested the local elections alone, while other parties formed varying alliances. Even so, UML ward chair candidates amassed 41,619 votes, far ahead of the NC’s 22,022, Maoist Centre’s 10,788, and RPP’s 6,048.
All 10 wards of Damak Municipality fall within Jhapa-5. There, an NC–Maoist–RPP alliance challenged UML. RPP’s Ram Kumar Thapa won the mayoralty with 17,525 votes, narrowly ahead of UML’s Gita Poudel Adhikari, who secured 16,966 votes. UML still won seven of the 10 wards.
Similar patterns of UML strength, despite alliances against it, are visible across Gaurigunj, Gauradaha, and Kamal rural and municipal areas.
This time, 163,379 voters are registered in Jhapa-5. Their verdict will not only decide the outcome of the Oli–Balen showdown but could also shape the political trajectory of both leaders.
