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Madhesh emerges as a defining battleground ahead of March 5 polls

Once considered a routine voting region, Madhesh has now become a potential kingmaker in national politics. The province comprises eight districts with 32 constituencies of the 165 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats and nearly 20 percent of the country’s voters (approximately 3,636,414 ) reside here. 
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By Ujjwal Satyal

KATHMANDU, Jan 25: As Nepal gears up for the March 5 House of Representatives (HoR) elections, Madhesh Province is attracting unprecedented attention from political leaders and parties. 



Once considered a routine voting region, Madhesh has now become a potential kingmaker in national politics. The province comprises eight districts with 32 constituencies of the 165 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats and nearly 20 percent of the country’s voters (approximately 3,636,414 ) reside here. 


Nationwide, 3,484 candidates have filed nominations, of which 30 percent are contesting from Madhesh.


Political analysts say the province’s growing significance stems from its growing population and failure of the Madhesh-based party to win the public’s sentiments.


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“Madhesh-based political parties have failed to win the hearts of local people,” said Chandra Dev Bhatta, a political analyst. “Internal rifts among the parties and post-2015 constitutional developments have weakened their influence, making Madhes a promising territory for national leaders and new entrants alike for this election.”


Eight major Madhes-based parties are also fielding candidates across the province, including CK Raut’s Janamat Party, Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajwadi Party, Mohammad Rizwan Ansari’s Federal Socialist Party, Rajendra Mahato’s Rastriya Mukti Party, Prabhu Sah’s Aam Janata Party, Samim Miya Ansari’s Rastriya Nirman Party, and Surendra Khadka’s Samunnat Nepal Party. 


Analysts note that while these parties were once seen as the beacon of hope following the Madhes Movement of 2007–2008, internal divisions have eroded public trust over time.


With the weakening influence of Madhesh-based, leaders of larger political parties and new forces are stepping up their campaigns in the province. Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) launched its Madhes-focused election campaign on January 19 from Janakpur, the provincial capital. Party chair Rabi Lamichhane was joined by Balendra Shah, whom the party has announced as its prime ministerial candidate. 


Shah, the former mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, addressing the crowd in local Maithili dialect, called himself a “son of Madhes,” to thousands of elated participants of the program. 


Similarly, Nepali Congress President Gagan Kumar Thapa, also the party’s prime ministerial candidate, is contesting from Sarlahi-4. Thapa, a three-time election winner from Kathmandu-4, is now seeking to reclaim the party’s influence in Madhesh. Thapa is all set to tour Madhesh starting Sunday. Speaking with youths of Sarlahi-4 on the eve of his Madhesh tour, Thapa said that it was the responsibility of the party to connect Madesh and its people to mainstream politics. 


“We cannot always connect Madhesh through our words. It's time we acknowledge Madhesh’s importance and Madheshi’s sacrifice into national politics,” Thapa said.


Nepali Communist Party (NCP) co-coordinator and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal is contesting from Rautahat-1, while former deputy prime ministers Bimalendra Nidhi and Narayan Kaji Shrestha are running from Dhanusha-3 and Sarlahi-3, respectively.


The heightened focus on Madhes reflects broader changes in Nepal’s political landscape. Regional identity, development concerns, and local governance have become central to campaign strategies, signaling that Madhes is no longer a peripheral player but a defining factor in national politics. 




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