KATHMANDU, April 29: Nepal’s economy is estimated to reach Rs 6.6 trillion by the end of the current fiscal year (FY), an increase of Rs 401 billion, according to preliminary national accounting data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
The new figures show the country’s nominal economic size will rise compared to FY 2024/25, when the economy stood at Rs 6.199 trillion. In the previous year, the size of the economy was Rs 5.760 trillion.
However, the estimated figure reveals a significant gap between the government’s ambitious targets and the current economic reality. In a white paper released Monday, the government outlined a plan to achieve a US $100 billion economy (equivalent to more than Rs 15 trillion) within the next five to seven years — more than double the current size.
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The NSO said the economic growth rate for the current FY is estimated at just 3.85% at consumer prices, down from 4.43% last fiscal year. At constant prices, the growth rate is projected at 3.68%, a decline from 3.80%.
Alongside the slowdown in overall growth, the primary and tertiary sectors are expected to perform poorly. The primary sector — which includes agriculture, mining and natural resources — is estimated to grow by only 1.63% in 2025/26, down from 3.01% last year. Similarly, the tertiary sector, mainly services, is projected to increase by 4.21%, down from 4.36%.
The NSO, however, has projected improved performance in the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing. That sector is estimated to grow by 5.77%, compared to 3.40% last fiscal year.
Officials attributed the industrial sector’s improvement to increased production of cement, vegetable ghee, concrete, soybean oil, iron rods, tobacco, wiring cable, jute and beer, among other products. Alongside rising demand for finished goods in this category, imports of raw materials — including soybean oil, zinc sheets, iron rod raw materials and coal — have increased sharply.
The industrial sector’s contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to remain at 13.7%. In contrast, the primary sector and tertiary sector are estimated to contribute 24.5% and 61.8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Nepal’s GDP per capita has fallen to 1,513 in FY2025/26, down from 1,516 in FY2024/25. NSO Director Dinesh Bhattarai said the slight decline is due to a sharp rise in the dollar’s exchange rate against the Nepali currency. Per capita gross national income (GNI) is estimated at $1,535 this year, unchanged from the revised estimate of last year.
