KATHMANDU, Jan 16: Nepal’s politics is at one of its most complex junctures in history. With the House of Representatives election set for March 5, political activity has surged dramatically.
The upcoming contest pits entrenched leaders of long-standing parties—who have steered the country for decades—against emerging alternative forces, turning what might have been a routine election into a potential grand political showdown.
Interestingly, while old powers scramble to forge tacit operational unity or strategic alliances to preserve dominance, the so-called new powers are preparing for direct battles against each other.
The party led by Dharan Sub-Metropolitan Mayor and Shram Sanskriti Party Chair Harka Raj Rai Sampang has already announced nationwide candidates. Meanwhile, Ujyalo Party Nepal, led by Chair and former minister Kulman Ghising, and Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) Mayor Balendra Shah (Balen), following a split from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), are also contesting independently.
Amid this whirlwind, the psychology of top party leaders is sharply divided. Historic disputes and internal divisions have robbed Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba of peace of mind. At the same time, CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli appears jittery over Balen’s potential entry into Jhapa Constituency-5, a traditional UML stronghold, and the political shockwaves it could unleash.
Yet, Nepali Communist Party Coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal remains unruffled, observing the chaos with calm confidence.
Deuba’s stress: History repeats and legitimacy at stake
Govt prepares response plan against ‘heat wave'
Nepali Congress (NC), hailed as the cradle of Nepal’s democratic movement, is now in one of its most precarious states. Founded in 2003 BS under BP Koirala, the party faces its third—and possibly most perilous—split, with Deuba at the center.
The pressure stems from General Secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, who, bypassing ongoing party reform debates, launched a special general convention under Article 17(2) of the party statute. With Thapa declared president at the Bhrikutimandap special convention, the NC has effectively split into two factions.
For Deuba, the role reversal is stark. Once a rebel against then-president Girija Prasad Koirala in 2059 BS, forming NC Prajatantrik over emergency issues, he now sits in the establishment chair, targeted by the ‘rebels.’ The cycle of fate places him on history’s dock.
With uncertainty over who will wield the party’s tree symbol and flag in the upcoming election, Deuba’s five-decade political legacy could collapse like a sandcastle if the Election Commission (EC) validates the convention’s decision. Efforts by moderates like Dr. Shekhar Koirala and Minendra Rijal have faltered, leaving Deuba trapped in a political maze.
Oli’s unease: The ‘Balen factor’ in Jhapa-5
UML Chair Oli’s stress stems less from internal party rifts than from external pressures and unexpected electoral challenges. Jhapa Constituency-5, the fortress of UML and Oli, now faces tremors. Since 2048 BS, Oli has ruled here unchallenged. But this time, his rival seems to be Balen.
After the 42nd Piskar Martyr Day event, Oli told journalists, “Rabi is settled, Balen has fallen straight,” reflecting unease.
The Office of the Attorney General’s decision to proceed against RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane for cooperative fraud and organized crime, coupled with Balen’s potential candidacy, is no coincidence in Oli’s view. He sees a grand design: Lamichhane secured legal safety through a deal with the ruling party, while Balen is positioned as a ‘sacrificial goat’ in Oli’s stronghold.
Even if he tries to appear relaxed, memories of the Gen-Z protests on Sept. 8–9, which forced him to escape Baluwatar by helicopter, remain fresh. Social media campaigns like ‘No Oli, Only Balen’ are trending. If Balen contests in Jhapa Constituency-5, Oli will face stiff opposition and humiliating protests on his home ground—fueling his stress.
Dahal’s ‘chill’ strategy: Safe landing and smart polarization
While Deuba and Oli battle for survival, Dahal remains calm, backed by strategy.
First, geography: Choosing Rukum, his stronghold, Dahal avoids conflicts with Balen or NC-UML, ensuring a ‘safe landing.’
Second, polarization: Dahal is uniting small leftist and identity-based parties under the NCP banner, including CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN (Unified Socialist). A merger with the Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, led by Suman Sayami, is the latest step, bringing around 20 like-minded small parties together.
Dahal’s calculation is clear: the weaker and more divided NC and UML become, the stronger Maoist bargaining power grows. Quietly building strength, he positions himself as the post-election ‘kingmaker.’
With NC’s historic legacy crumbling and Gen-Z networks challenging UML’s organizational pride, the upcoming election sees Deuba and Oli fighting for survival, while Dahal leverages instability to his advantage.
Lamichhane’s legal hurdles may ease, and Balen’s potential campaign in Jhapa adds unpredictability. Young voters are rising above traditional loyalties, favoring performance and rebellion. Trends like ‘No Oli’ and ‘No Harka’ dominate social media.
The next six weeks promise to be extremely challenging for Nepali politics. Will Deuba rescue NC? Can Oli defend his Jhapa fortress and reputation? And will Dahal’s cool-headed strategy survive the electoral storm?
The answers lie ahead—but one truth is certain: Nepali politics is no longer moving in yesterday’s lanes.
