RAUTAHAT, July 27: A new seven-point political agreement between the CPN-UML and the Nepali Communist Party NCP at the federal level has triggered speculation over a possible reshuffle of the ruling coalition in Madhesh Province.
As the two parties move to strengthen their alliance nationally, political consultations and negotiations have intensified in Madhesh over the possibility of forming a new provincial government.
The agreement states that the two parties will jointly cooperate at the provincial government level. Under the deal, the UML will lead governments in Koshi, Bagmati and Lumbini, while the NCP will head governments in Karnali and Sudurpaschim. The leadership in Madhesh and Gandaki provinces will be decided in consultation with other parties represented in the provincial assemblies, making Madhesh’s political equation particularly significant.
The 101-member Madhesh Provincial Assembly currently consists of 26 lawmakers from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal, 24 from the UML, 22 from the Nepali Congress (NC), 15 from the NCP, 12 from the Janamat Party, and one each from the Nagarik Unmukti Party and Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi Party.
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Political analysts say no single party has enough seats to form a government on its own, making a multi-party alliance essential. They believe the new political alignment at the center is likely to influence the province as well.
Discussions among top leaders are ongoing over who will lead the provincial government, which parties will join it and how power-sharing will be finalized. A decision is expected in the coming days.
Despite growing speculation, Chief Minister Krishna Prasad Yadav of the NC insisted that the current coalition in Madhesh will remain intact.
“Whatever political equation emerges at the center, the existing coalition in Madhesh Province will continue,” he said.
However, the JSP Nepal, a key partner in the provincial government, has not ruled out the possibility of a new alliance.
Party spokesperson Manish Suman said no formal proposal or discussion had taken place with any party so far, but acknowledged that the new alliance between the UML and the NCP at the federal level could create new political possibilities in the province.
He also claimed that JSP Nepal remains the decisive force in Madhesh and will play a key role in determining the future composition of the provincial government. According to him, longstanding differences among coalition partners have also increased the likelihood of a political realignment.
With no party holding a clear majority in the province, any new government will require the support of multiple parties.
