KATHMANDU, Feb 22: Nepali Congress President Gagan Kumar Thapa is currently busy with door-to-door campaigning in Sarlahi 4. Soon after becoming party president through the special general convention following the Gen Z movement, Thapa chose Sarlahi 4 to contest the House of Representatives election.
His candidacy has drawn attention not only in Madhesh Province but across the country and has revived enthusiasm among Congress workers.
Stationed in Sarlahi, Thapa is focused on campaign outreach. He has been urging voters to walk with him during the campaign and allow him to carry their issues after the election.
For Thapa, who shifted from Kathmandu 4 to Sarlahi 4, the contest is far from easy. Amar Kumar Singh, who has been winning from this constituency repeatedly, is expected to give him tough competition.
Singh, once with the Congress, is now affiliated with the Rastriya Swatantra Party. Apart from Singh, Amanish Kumar Yadav, son of influential leader Shivpujan Rai Yadav, may also pose a serious challenge. Contesting from CPN UML, Amanish has emerged as a headache for both Thapa and Singh.
Shivpujan is considered to command a strong vote bank in the area, estimated at around 14,000 votes. He himself cannot contest after being convicted by the Special Court in a red passport misuse case during his tenure as a Constituent Assembly member in 2008.
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After the Supreme Court later invalidated his candidacy in the 2017 parliamentary election, he has fielded his son Amanish as his political alternative. UML leaders in Sarlahi claim Amanish received the ticket on the direct instruction of party chair KP Sharma Oli.
Sarlahi 4 includes Dhanakaul Rural Municipality, Ramnagar Rural Municipality, Balara Municipality, eight wards of Barahathwa Municipality, five wards of Bishnu Rural Municipality, and three wards of Basbariya Rural Municipality.
With about 125,000 voters, Thapa also faces competition from JSP Nepal and independent candidates. Congress leader Birendra Singh had earlier won the provincial assembly seat from this area in 2017 and 2022. Due to the party’s traditional organizational base and recent influx of leaders at the ward level, Thapa is not seen as weak.
In Balara Municipality, Congress holds ward chair positions in six of the 11 wards. Several ward leaders from other parties in Godaita and elsewhere have also joined Congress recently.
From UML, Chakra Snehi has entered the fray for the first time, while Tara Prasad Joshi, who moved from UML to Rastriya Swatantra Party, is also contesting, expressing confidence that voters are seeking an alternative force.
Meanwhile, Amar Kumar Singh claims his victory is assured, arguing that a government under “the son of Madhesh” Balen Shah is gaining support. Singh has already won three consecutive elections in 2013, 2017, and 2022.
In 2022, he secured 20,017 votes, defeating Congress candidate Nagendra Kumar Yadav and Shivpujan’s daughter Madhumala Kumari Yadav.
Sarlahi 4 has long been viewed as a Congress stronghold. Mahant Thakur won here in the three elections between 1991 and 1999. After Thakur left Congress, Singh continued contesting from the party from 2013 onward. Now Singh is running from RSP.
Thapa previously won three direct elections from Kathmandu 4. Congress Vice President Bishwa Prakash Sharma has framed Thapa’s candidacy from Madhesh as a gesture of respect toward the region and its voters.
For Thapa, who has just taken party leadership, this election will be a serious test. With the party already projecting him as a future prime ministerial candidate, the complex electoral arithmetic of Sarlahi 4 and its result could shape his political trajectory and influence the broader generational shift in national leadership.
Political analyst Chandrakishor says voters must act wisely. He notes this is an unusual electoral moment and both parties and voters must show exceptional judgment. According to him, this election is a test for both candidates and voters, and past ethnic voting patterns may not hold this time.
In Sarlahi 4, where Madhesi origin voters form the majority, caste equations, development expectations, and the debate between old and new candidates have become central campaign themes. Major contenders include Congress’s Thapa, RSP’s Singh, UML’s Amanish, Nepal Communist Party’s Rajanish Rai, and JSP Nepal’s Rameshwar Rai Yadav, among 38 candidates in total.
Past elections here have been heavily influenced by caste dynamics. The Yadav and Dalit communities form large voting blocs, while Rajput, Brahmin, Koiri Kushwaha, and Muslim communities also have notable presence. According to the 2021 national census, Sarlahi 4 has a population of 220,087, of which only 8.7 percent live in urban areas and 91.3 percent in semi urban settlements.
