KATHMANDU, July 7: As intelligence agencies around the world harness artificial intelligence, cyber surveillance and satellite technology to counter increasingly sophisticated security threats, Nepal's political leadership remains consumed by a far more basic question: who should control the country's premier intelligence agency?
Successive governments have repeatedly shifted the National Investigation Department (NID) between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA). Yet despite the recurring power struggle, experts say there has been little meaningful effort to modernize the agency or equip it with the legal framework, technology and financial resources needed to operate effectively in the digital era.
The latest chapter in that long-running tug-of-war came on June 29, when the government registered a bill in the House of Representatives (HoR) seeking to revive provisions of the Nepal Special Service Act, 1985, effectively restoring the NID under the Prime Minister's Office. The move follows the government's issuance of the new Government of Nepal (Allocation of Business) Regulations, 2026 on May 13, transferring the agency once again from the MoHA to the PMO.
While the debate over which office should oversee the NID has resurfaced, analysts say the more pressing issue—building a technology-driven intelligence service—has received little political attention.
A decades-long power struggle
The NID has frequently changed hands with shifts in political leadership.
The Nepal Special Service Act, enacted during the reign of King Birendra in 1985, originally placed the country's intelligence agency under the Prime Minister. Following the 1990 political changes, however, government business rules effectively brought the department under the MoHA.
In 2018, the government led by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli restored the agency to the PMO in line with the spirit of the 1985 law. After subsequent changes in government and coalition politics, it was transferred back to the MoHA through a cabinet decision and ordinance on September 25, 2025.
The current government has now reversed that decision, seeking to permanently restore the original legal arrangement through Parliament.
Analysts argue that each administrative shift has reflected political priorities rather than institutional reform.
"Political leaders are eager to keep the intelligence agency under their direct command, but far less interested in making it capable of addressing modern security threats," a senior government official familiar with the matter told Republica.
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Modern threats, outdated tools
Experts say Nepal's intelligence apparatus continues to rely overwhelmingly on traditional human intelligence despite dramatic changes in the global security landscape.
According to analysts, more than 70 percent of intelligence gathering still depends on field operatives and personal networks rather than digital monitoring, cyber intelligence or advanced data analysis.
The agency also lacks both the legal authority and sophisticated technology needed to monitor communications, internet activity and digital networks linked to threats against national security.
As a result, security agencies often fail to detect emerging threats before incidents occur.
The challenge is not new.
A comprehensive Nepal Special Service Bill, 2019, introduced to modernize the NID and strengthen its intelligence-gathering capabilities, lapsed after the dissolution of the HoR in 2022.
The bill became politically contentious because it included a provision allowing telephone interception without prior court approval. Opposition parties and civil liberties advocates argued that such powers could violate citizens' constitutional right to privacy.
Legal experts had recommended allowing digital surveillance only with prior judicial authorization to balance national security with fundamental rights. However, the bill never progressed beyond clause-by-clause deliberations before expiring.
Instead of revising and advancing that legislation, the government has opted to revive provisions of the 1985 Act, leaving broader modernization reforms largely untouched.
Funding remains a missing piece
Officials say technological modernization cannot happen without substantial financial investment.
Introducing artificial intelligence-based analytics, cyber intelligence platforms, satellite surveillance and advanced digital forensic systems would require billions of rupees over several years.
However, the financial memorandum accompanying the proposed legislation states that transferring the department to the PMO would impose no additional financial burden on the state because the move merely changes administrative supervision.
To some observers, that itself reflects the government's priorities.
"If Nepal is serious about modernizing its intelligence agency, Parliament should be discussing dedicated funding for technology, research and development—not simply deciding who the agency reports to," the government official said.
Analysts argue that without sustained investment, Nepal will continue relying on outdated intelligence methods while security threats become increasingly digital and transnational.
Information is power
Political observers say the repeated contest over the NID is hardly surprising.
Unlike the intelligence units operated by the Nepal Police, the Armed Police Force (APF) and the Nepali Army, the NID serves as the country's principal civilian intelligence agency.
Its reports cover political developments, internal security, foreign activities and other sensitive matters, all of which can significantly influence government decision-making.
Keeping the agency under the Prime Minister ensures that confidential intelligence reaches the country's chief executive directly.
For that reason, analysts say successive prime ministers have been reluctant to relinquish control.
A changing security landscape
Nepal's security environment has become increasingly complex following the implementation of federalism, which has redistributed authority among the federal, provincial and local governments.
Experts argue that addressing new security challenges will require stronger coordination among the Nepali Army, Nepal Police, APF and the NID, supported by modern technology and a clear legal framework.
More importantly, they say, Nepal must move beyond the recurring political contest over administrative control and begin investing in institutional capacity.
More than two millennia ago, Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War that knowing both oneself and one's enemy guarantees success in battle.
Today, intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency, Secret Intelligence Service and Mossad increasingly rely on artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities and advanced surveillance technologies to protect national interests.
Whether Nepal's political leadership can move beyond the battle for control and build an intelligence agency that is technologically capable, institutionally independent and publicly accountable remains an unanswered question.
