KATHMANDU, July 22: Floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), prolonged heatwaves and extreme rainfall are no longer just natural disasters for Nepal. A new scientific study has found that human-induced climate change is making extreme heat and heavy rainfall more frequent and more intense, while warning that Nepal’s institutions still need strengthening to fully benefit from international climate support.
The study, "Climate-induced loss and damage in Nepal: attribution analysis and institutional readiness for international support," published last week in the international journal Frontiers in Climate, is the first comprehensive assessment combining scientific evidence that links climate change to disasters in Nepal with an evaluation of the country's preparedness to access international financing for climate-related loss and damage.
The researchers, both from Nepal and abroad, conclude that Nepal has a growing scientific basis to demonstrate that climate change is amplifying disasters within its borders. However, they argue that stronger institutions, better data systems and improved coordination are essential if the country is to make a credible case for international support under emerging global climate finance mechanisms.
Beyond adaptation
The study focuses on the concept of "loss and damage", the economic and non-economic impacts of climate change that cannot be prevented through adaptation alone.
These include homes swept away by landslides, settlements destroyed by glacial lake outburst floods, declining agricultural production due to prolonged drought, damage to infrastructure and the loss of cultural heritage and ecosystems. Unlike adaptation, which aims to reduce future risks, loss and damage addresses the consequences that societies are unable to avoid despite adaptation efforts.
Extreme heat and rainfall becoming more likely
To assess climate risks across Nepal, researchers divided the country into five geographical regions—the Terai, Chure, Middle Hills, High Mountains and the Himalayan region—and compared present-day climate conditions with a hypothetical world without human-induced climate change.
Their findings show that both extreme heat and heavy rainfall have become significantly more likely because of global warming.
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One striking example cited in the study is the 2024 extreme heat event in the Terai, which recorded 76 warm-spell days — the highest in the region's recent record. According to the analysis, such an event is now expected roughly once every 21 years. In a pre-industrial climate, however, the same event would have been virtually impossible—occurring only once in thousands of years.
The findings suggest that rising temperatures are no longer simply a matter of warmer weather. Increasingly frequent heat extremes pose serious threats to public health, agricultural productivity, water resources and energy systems.
Short, intense rainfall raising disaster risks
The study also finds that Nepal's growing challenge is not only changing rainfall patterns but increasingly intense precipitation occurring over very short periods.
Across all five geographical regions, heavy rainfall events over five-day periods have become more intense, with some regions experiencing increases of around 50 percent compared to historical conditions. The increase could be even greater in the Himalayan region.
Scientists say this trend helps explain the growing frequency of destructive floods and landslides in Nepal. Steep terrain, fragile geology, expanding settlements along riverbanks and poorly planned infrastructure development are further amplifying disaster risks.
Himalayan warning
The research identifies rapid glacier retreat and the expansion of glacial lakes as another major concern.
Nepal currently has 2,323 glacial lakes, of which 330 are expanding and 21 are classified as potentially dangerous.
The study notes that GLOFs pose serious concerns to mountain communities, hydropower projects, roads, bridges, river systems and downstream settlements. It cites the 1985 Dig Tsho glacial lake outburst, which destroyed a nearly completed hydropower project, as an early example of the cascading impacts such disasters can cause.
Why attribution science matters
A key contribution of the study is its use of climate attribution analysis—a scientific method that examines how much climate change has influenced a particular extreme weather event.
Scientists compare today's warmer world with a hypothetical world in which greenhouse gas emissions had not significantly altered the climate. By comparing these two scenarios, they estimate how much more likely or more intense an event has become because of human-induced climate change.
For Nepal, this scientific evidence carries significance beyond academic research.
Although the country contributes only a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts. Demonstrating that climate change has intensified disasters strengthens Nepal's case for climate justice and could support future claims under international loss and damage financing arrangements.
Institutional gaps remain
Building on Nepal's progress in climate policies and planning, the researchers conclude that institutional fragmentation and coordination gaps continue to constrain implementation. They identify overlapping mandates, fragmented data systems and coordination gaps as the main areas to strengthen.to responding effectively to climate-induced loss and damage.
The study notes that Nepal has already begun shifting from a disaster response model toward resilience-oriented climate governance and argues for further investment in scientific risk assessment, preparedness and evidence-based planning.
Among its recommendations are strengthening climate and meteorological data systems, expanding attribution research, improving disaster-loss databases and enhancing coordination among government institutions.
The road ahead
The study concludes that climate change is no longer a future threat for Nepal but a present-day reality.
As the international community begins operationalizing new financing mechanisms for climate-related loss and damage, the researchers argue that Nepal already possesses an important asset: scientific evidence that climate change is worsening the country's disasters.
"The current challenge is transforming that evidence into stronger public policy, institutional capacity and credible claims for international climate finance," says Manjeet Dhakal, the lead researcher and author of the study.
